What are the chances of winning the lottery?
Is your football team's place in the league tables down to luck or to skill?
If a lie detector test with an accuracy rate of 95% says you are guilty, what is the chance you are innocent?

Mathematics can help us understand the role that chance, luck and uncertainty plays in the world around us, and an understanding of statistics and probability can help us make better-informed decisions. In collaboration with Professor David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge, we've launched What are the Odds? - the Hands-On Risk and Probability Show to help students explore real-world examples of probability in action.

We can bring the Hands-On Risk and Probability Show to schools to run a special mathematics enrichment event for Key Stages 2 to 5. The aim is to bring mathematics alive, complementing what students learn in class and helping to bridge the gap between curriculum mathematics and real-world applications.

What are the Odds? - the Hands-On Risk and Probability Show helps to provide answers to questions like these through interactive presentations and game-show style workshops, enabling Key Stage 2 to 5 students to discover how mathematics will help them make sense of the real world in situations involving risk, probability, chance and uncertainty.

How it works:

The Hands-On Risk and Probability Show consists of an initial 60-minute interactive presentation to the full group of students who will take part during the day. Students then return in groups of up to 80 at a time to participate in the interactive "Who Wants to be a Mathionaire?" game-show workshop sessions, each lasting around 50-60 minutes, in which they use hand-held electronic voting devices to take part in a series of challenges exploring the mathematics of probability and statistics. The workshop can be repeated a maximum of 5 times (full day - twice in a half-day) until all students have taken part.

The accompanying Teachers' Pack gives links to complementary resources and ideas for follow-up activities, as well as outlining the learning outcomes of the Hands-On Risk and Probability Show and how it links to the National Curriculum. The Hands-On Risk and Probability Show is co-ordinated and delivered by Nadia Baker.

Venue required:

We can set up the Hands-On Risk and Probability Show presentation and workshop activities in your large hall, theatre, or similar, which must have chairs for all students involved to be seated comfortably. The room needs to be available all day.

Cost and booking information:

The cost for a Hands-On Risk and Probability Show visit is £595 for a full day or £415 for a half day, plus travel costs. For more information or to make a provisional booking download the Hands-On Risk and Probability Show flyer and booking form (pdf - a Word version of the booking form is available if you want to return it by email) or contact Nadia Baker.

Feedback from teachers:

'A challenging and enjoyable experience enhanced by a presenter who encouraged and supported the students. Thank you for a great afternoon, and a rigorous mental workout!'

'The most useful element is the link to real life situations and experiences, relating the maths done in school to the real world.'

'Complemented and went beyond the material covered in Maths lessons.'

'It put probability into practice which complemented class work.'

'Made maths exciting, competitive and the mathematical discussion that went on was very valuable.'

'There was lots of challenge and opportunities to apply the maths learnt in school.'

'I thought it was excellent with lots of interactive activities that held all of the children’s attention.'

'Developed student thinking skills and lateral thinking ability.'

'Challenging and fun for the children and teachers.'

'The engagement factor was high.'

'Thank you, most enjoyable, well organised and delivered.'

'A brilliant, entertaining and challenging session.'

Media coverage:

'Probability lessons may teach children how to weigh life's odds and be winners': The Times, 5th January 2009

'Professor Spiegelhalter has developed programmes for teaching risk literacy, based on familiar subjects such as the National Lottery and football league tables, which his team is introducing to schools through a "Risk Roadshow". ... "I regard myself as part of a movement we call risk literacy," Professor Spiegelhalter told The Times. ..."We should essentially be teaching the ability to deconstruct the latest media story about a cancer risk or a wonder drug, so people can work out what it means. Really, that should be part of everyone's language." As an aspect of science, risk is "as important as learning about DNA, maybe even more important," he said. ... We can do it as part of maths outreach, maths inspiration, which is a real privilege because we can make it fun.'

'"Risk literacy" for high schoolers gains currency in bid to boost decision making': Chicago Tribune, 1st March 2009

'With stock portfolios in free fall and jobs in limbo, just about everyone these days is wondering about their ability to assess risks. Headlines full of warnings about threats from climate change to cancer risks don't make it any easier to know what really merits worry and how much of it. David Spiegelhalter, a University of Cambridge mathematician, aims to help. As part of a new push by Bristish high schools to teach statistical skills, he's helping students - and others - get a basic grasp of probabilities to help them correctly judge risks and make better decisions. ... Starting this winter, he and colleagues are launching a "Risk Roadshow" for British middle school and high school students, aimed at teaching how basic statistical principles can improve decision-making.